Republican candidate Matt Van Epps grappled a close victory Tuesday night for the House seat representing Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.

“Tonight, we showed running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win,” Van Epps said. “Our victory was powered by supporters of President Trump turning out to vote.”

The special election took place after U.S. Rep. Mark Green resigned to take on a role in the private sector in June, leaving the seat empty.

A look at the numbers

Tennessee House Democrat Aftyn Behn contested Van Epps, losing by nearly 16,000 votes or 9 percentage points — a strikingly low number after Trump won the 7th District by 22 points in 2024.

“I was not surprised by the close results,” Troy Goodale, lecturer of political science, said. “It most definitely was a referendum on the situation nationally.”

Behn’s position was weakened by the state’s redrawing of congressional districts years before Tuesday’s election.

Davidson County, which encompasses Nashville, used to be represented entirely in the 5th District, serving as a powerful force for Democrats in elections. In 2022, Tennessee Republicans approved a plan to split Nashville across the 5th, 6th and 7th Districts, effectively disassembling the Democratic stronghold.

“Gerrymandering is a significant problem in our political system. Both parties do it when they can,” Goodale said. “I strongly feel that the voters should be the ones choosing their representatives, rather than these representatives choosing who their voters are going to be.”

Unlike other counties in the district, Davidson County swung blue, with Behn outperforming Van Epps by 56 points.

Despite the Republican victory, all 14 counties represented in the district saw Democratic shifts compared to the 2024 presidential election. Davidson County saw the most dramatic change, shifting 20 points toward the Democrats.

“Both candidates highlighted issues of affordability — a message the Democrats have really dug into after it worked well for (Mamdani) in New York,” Kirsten Widner, assistant professor of political science, said. “This shows that Republicans have realized this is a point of vulnerability for them and are starting to use that language.”

Off-year election draws national attention

“This election received a lot of national attention, the most I’ve ever seen in a Tennessee congressional race,” Goodale said.

The surprisingly tense race prompted action from national political figures, including President Donald Trump.

“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching the district,” Trump said, calling into a rally for Van Epps.

Van Epps personally thanked Trump in a speech following his victory.

“To President Donald J. Trump, thank you, sir,” Van Epps said. “Your endorsement made the difference, and I will never forget it.”

Van Epps also spoke directly to voters in regards to his Trump-endorsed campaign.

“Tonight, you’ve sent a message loud and clear: The people of Middle Tennessee stand with President Donald J. Trump,” Van Epps said, receiving applause from the audience.

Some of Tennessee’s federal-level politicians congratulated Van Epps on the results as well.

“A win for the Volunteer State! Common sense prevails,” U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) said, posting a photo of him with Van Epps at a UT tailgate. “Congratulations to my friend, and newest colleague, @MattForTN.”

Dwindling margin calls 2026 midterms into question

Some politicians view the election as a moral victory for Democrats, expecting the momentum gained this year to carry into the 2026 midterm elections. Others warn against too much hope building in the Democratic party.

“I don’t think Tennessee’s going to be purple anytime soon,” Richard Pacelle, professor of political science, said. “But I do think that it does send a message that people are somewhat unhappy, and that they’re willing to vote against the incumbents.”

The lessened margin represents a shift in Republican support, which could impact policy as the midterms approach.

“The midterm elections are a long way off,” Goodale said. “What happens depends on the economy for the most part. If things improve, Republicans will do better.”

Democratic energy remained high after the loss, fueled by reflections of the effort put into the campaign and the blue shift seen in results across the district.

“Tonight is not the final result of what we wanted,” Behn said in a post-results speech. “But it is the beginning of something so powerful in Tennessee, and across the South.”