As this elections draw nearer, general consensus throughout the United States is that the economy (or lack thereof) is going to put all social issues into a very distant backseat. Not that these topics aren’t important, but there are few social issues that affect every single individual like the recession does and will continue to do.
For college students, this election is especially important. With our careers just around the corner, this election will go a long way in determining what the U.S. job outlook will look like by the time the current freshmen are graduating.
There are several interesting trends in this election, but one I find particularly fascinating is that Barack Obama is ardently avoiding his political record. The few times Obama does address his policies, he tells us that “the private sector is doing fine,” regardless of the fact that the real unemployment rate (number of people who can’t find work plus the number of people who have given up looking for work) is close to 14% as of August 2012. Surely Obama does not truly believe this is “fine.”
However, there is evidence that the economy is growing. This could potentially support Obama’s belief in his policies. Let’s investigate this growth while viewing it within the context of its historical value. The percentage growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) is a common indicator of economic movement and can be used to compare growth across large time periods. The average percentage of GDP growth over the last 30 years is 2.7 percent. Any growth over 3 percent is generally considered to be quality economic growth. George W. Bush averaged 2.0 percent over his eight years. Ronald Reagan averaged 3.4 percent. Obama looks like he will finish his first term somewhere near 1.5 percent.
If we buy Obama’s argument that we shouldn’t blame him for what he inherited, then we can knock the first two years off of his average. Obama went 1.7 percent in year three and looks to finish at about 1.9 percent in year four. That seems like a good improvement, right up until you realize that Reagan went 4.5 percent for year three and 7.2 percent for year four. Mind you, Reagan instituted tax cuts and monetary tightening in his first term, the exact opposite of what Obama wants to continue doing. Even more is revealed when you consider that the size of an economic recovery has historically corresponded inversely to the size of the recession. Obama’s inherited recession was 75 percent larger than Reagan’s, so, theoretically, his recovery should be 75 percent larger.
Why hasn’t it been? Simply put, higher tax rates on big businesses leave less money for investing and stagnant financial growth. Some of these taxes have gone to fund Obama’s pet projects, like the green energy company Solyndra (now bankrupt), and his supporters, like the United Autoworkers Union and General Motors (which posted a 41 percent loss in profits in the second quarter of 2012, all while selling federally subsidized Chevy Volts on a taxpayer-funded loss).
This column is not meant to tell you to vote for Mitt Romney. I simply want you to thoroughly consider who you are voting for in this election and why. Four years ago, many of us supported Obama because he was hip, cool and new. This year, I encourage you to vote for the candidate you believe can get the job done. If that is still Barack Obama, then go for it. Just make sure to educate yourself on electoral issues and make informed decisions. Voting is a liberty afforded to us as Americans that we should never waste.
Shameless Plug of the Week: If you are looking for some really accurate news, including domestic and international politics as well as breakthroughs in science and daily life, I encourage you to check out instapundit.com. It’s informative, comprehensive and oftentimes humorous. Instapundit is nationally acclaimed as one of America’s most widely read political blogs. It’s headed by Glenn Reynolds, a UT graduate and law professor. Dr. Reynolds also shares my high school alma mater, Maryville, which is an added bonus.
— Hunter Tipton is a senior in microbiology. He can be reached at [email protected].
