Each week, the two sports editors at The Daily Beacon, Trevor McGee and Alex Sarkis, give their keys and predictions for Tennessee’s upcoming football matchup.
In other news, there is indeed a football game on Saturday.
The No. 17 Vols require a clean showing as they face their second straight road trip, a short ride north on Interstate 75 for a duel with Kentucky. Tennessee appeared sloppy in a similar SEC night atmosphere last week against Alabama, a bugaboo that is quickly becoming a theme of head coach Josh Heupel’s group away from home.
Kentucky sits near the bottom of the conference rankings in offensive and defensive metrics, still searching for its first SEC win. The Vols haven’t dropped a game in Lexington since the 2017 campaign.
Trevor McGee, Sports Editor
Play with urgency
One would think that the Third Saturday in October would be enough to wake up for. But never in Saturday’s game did it feel the Vols were up for the challenge. A three-and-out came out of the opening drive, and that is when it felt that all hope was drained.
While Kentucky has played one-possession games against Ole Miss and Texas, the Wildcats are not a team Tennessee needs to play closely. Urgency comes with applying pressure. It comes with dialing up deep balls, something that was eliminated against Alabama. Stretch the field, score points and leave Kroger Field with a tally in the win column.
A loss to Kentucky derails the entire season. Urgency is a key to loss prevention.
Dominate the trenches
Tennessee was overpowered in the physicality department against the Crimson Tide. Being physical starts up front.
Kentucky’s offensive line has been much improved from a year ago, but the Vols’ defensive line is among the league leaders in sacks for a reason. A goose egg to Alabama and Ty Simpson should make them hungry to get back on the board. Making redshirt freshman Cutter Boley uncomfortable should do the trick.
Flipping the script, the Wildcats do not have mauler Deone Walker at defensive tackle anymore. While they do still have talent, not having to game plan for such a force is an easier task for Tennessee’s offensive line, which allowed four sacks a week ago — three to Yhonzae Pierre.
Winning in the trenches should signify a win on the scoreboard.
Score prediction: Tennessee 24, Kentucky 13
Kentucky’s students are on fall break and basketball season has arrived, with the Wildcats hosting Purdue in Rupp Arena for a scrimmage on Friday. It is debatable whether their fans realize that football is being played on Saturday, so the crowd should not be a factor.
Still, Tennessee’s offensive sputters over the last two weeks do not make me confident that the end zone will have a lot of activity. Kentucky’s offense has struggled to find the end zone too. For the first time this season, I see a low-scoring affair in which the Vols come out on top in the rivalry.
Alex Sarkis, Assistant Sports Editor
Stay out of your own way
We’ve seen it time and time again – self-inflicted wounds that kill Tennessee on the road.
Maybe the Vols’ best case study came last weekend. On the second play of the game with the Crimson Tide, a false start set Tennessee’s offense behind the chains. Later, an offensive pass interference began an avalanche that resulted in a Joey Aguilar safety. The Tennessee defense committed 45 yards’ worth of penalties on Alabama’s game-clinching touchdown drive.
All of the above simply can’t happen again, no matter the caliber of the opponent.
The Vols have the better talent this weekend and can impose their will on the Wildcats, should they choose to do so. It’s all in Tennessee’s hands. The Vols need to come out largely mistake-free, cutting down on missed tackles while preventing any negatives from snowballing.
Start fast
For the first time all season, the offense failed to post points in the opening quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Alabama’s defense is not Kentucky’s, so Tennessee should have the ability to find a way to light up the scoreboard on any of its scripted opening drives. The Wildcats are allowing 25.8 points per game this season, a mark that tabs them 14th in the conference.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Vols had a chance to force an early Crimson Tide three-and-out on their opening possession a week ago. Tennessee failed to execute a stop in a third-and-long scenario, giving up a touchdown several snaps later. The Vols would love an early stand to quiet the Kroger Field crowd and get to the sideline. They need defensive confidence, and this is a matchup against one of the SEC’s lesser offenses where they can get some.
Score prediction: Tennessee 35, Kentucky 28
No SEC team has found it difficult to post points against Tennessee’s defense this season. The Vols rank 119th in the country in penalties per game. All but one of Tennessee’s conference matchups have been decided by one score. I don’t see this week against Kentucky as the one where Tennessee magically cleans everything up.
I believe the Vols can surely lead this game by double-digits at some points, but the Wildcats will capitalize on Tennessee’s mishaps to get themselves back into striking distance.
