Despite the entire field consisting of no less than 64 teams once play-in games have been decided, it’s relatively easy to predict March Madness. In the past 25 years, the champion has been a top-4 seed all but once (Connecticut in 2014), and in that same span, the champion has been a top-2 seed 21 times.
So reasonably, only 8-16 teams have a real chance of winning the championship on any given year, an unfortunate reality for a vast majority of the contestants in sport’s greatest tournament.
Enter 2016, the year of unparalleled parity in college basketball. Within reason, there are no less than 16-20 teams with a real chance of winning the NCAA championship, plus a plethora of underdogs who could undermine the hopes of people with legitimate claims of going to the Final Four.
Many people like to claim that the key to winning March Madness is just getting hot and playing to your ceiling. I propose a different theory.
It’s about playing above your floor. What’s the worst you can play and how can you avoid playing at that level?
That’s why North Carolina is my favorite to win March Madness, despite having four games left before conference tournaments start across the nation. Their high? Dropping 89 early this season against a Maryland team that may have the best combination of experience and talent in their starting five in the country. Simultaneously, when playing right above their floor, they’ve managed to win while only scoring 67 points against N.C. State.
Obviously they could get upset by a lower tier team at the top of their game, such as when they lost to Notre Dame on Feb. 6.
That’s what’s the most exciting about this year’s tournament. There are numerous teams who can suddenly hit their highest gear and play their best ball come tournament time, such as Duke, who played exceptional ball down the stretch in their latest match with a UNC squad who collapsed to their floor.
Fewer are the stars who are exceptionally talented and can carry a team single-handedly. Oklahoma senior Buddy Hield is the premier example in college basketball right now, currently putting the finishing touches on a season sure to win him the Wooden Award en route to the NBA draft.
Other examples include Providence junior Kris Dunn and the Kentucky backcourt of Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis, all capable of carrying their respective teams into the depths of the tournament.
To mention all these teams without mentioning Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Michigan State, Iowa, Arizona or Maryland is a moot point. All of these teams have a legitimate claim that they could win the championship based on their personnel, coaching or star power. Even a team such as Texas falls a little short of championship expectations but has proven they can beat a higher ranked team.
The absence of a single super team such as last year’s Kentucky squad or the Louisville team of 2013 has turned the NCAA championship into a more open race than any year in recent memory and that void might create the most exciting March Madness in years.
Lucas Hunter is a sophomore in journalism and electronic media. He can be reached at [email protected]
