Football games aren’t decided on paper.
When Tennessee football faces the Illinois Fighting Illini on Tuesday in the Music City Bowl, only the 60 minutes of game time will matter. But that doesn’t mean that stats can’t help one understand teams’ strengths and weaknesses, and how those could play out in one pivotal moment or over the course of the game.
Here are a few key numbers that could help explain what happens on the field on Tuesday.
51.0%
Tennessee’s third-down conversion percentage is tied for sixth nationally. Illinois’s defense, on the other hand, allows opponents to convert on third down 44.7% of the time, which is one of the worst marks in the FBS at 118th.
Vanderbilt was the last opponent for the Vols. Tennessee converted a season-high 12 third downs on 19 attempts. The 63% conversion rate was the third-highest this season. Illinois, on the other hand, allowed Northwestern to convert 5-of-13 attempts.
The Vols’ ability to sustain drives with key conversions on third down has been pivotal to their strong offense this year. Whether it’s early in the first quarter to jump out to a lead, or at a crucial late-game moment, pay attention to Tennessee’s third-down offense.
4.67 and 41.08
Illinois’s penalties and penalty yards per game ranked T-20th and 21st in FBS, respectively.
Tennessee averages 6.33 penalties for 55.58 yards per game. This may not sound like much, but it’s a difference of about 15 yards, equivalent to a pass interference or unsportsmanlike conduct call.
The Vols have committed 10 penalties in three different outings this season. Illinois has only committed more than five penalties in a contest twice this season, going for a season-high eight against Washington.
One penalty at an inopportune time could swing the entire contest. If Tennessee is undisciplined, especially on defense, the Illini could take advantage.
plus-5 and plus-4
Tennessee and Illinois’ turnover margins, respectively.
This means that the Vols have recovered five more fumbles and interceptions than they have lost. A difference of one turnover given up over the course of 12 games is negligible, so this is a toss-up stat. It doesn’t need to be said how much a single turnover can flip the script of a game. Watch for a pick or a fumble to swing the contest or add to one team’s early lead.
Those are three statistics to pay attention to during the Music City Bowl that could define the game story and decide the winner. The Tennessee Vols and the Illinois Fighting Illini kick off on Dec. 30 at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
