Tennessee football (8-4) is taking on Iowa (10-3) in the Citrus Bowl on Monday at 1 p.m. ET.
The Hawkeyes’ stout defense will meet freshman Nico Iamaleava and the Vols’ explosive offense. Ahead of the matchup, The Daily Beacon’s sports staff gave their keys and predictions for the games.
KEYS
Caleb Jarreau, Sports Editor
1. Score
Iowa’s offense is down near the bottom of college football offenses. They average just 16.6 points per game with 22 touchdowns scored on the season. The ground game averages just 3.3 yards per carry, and the passing attack isn’t much better.
Iowa has been carried by its defense which ranks No. 5 overall this season. They allow just four yards per play and 13 points per game. It won’t be easy to score for sure.
That means, in Nico Iamaleava’s first start for the Vols, it won’t take 40 points to knock off the Hawkeyes. Finding the end zone and scoring 20-30 points will put Tennessee in a good position to win.
2. Lock down the back half of the defense
On the flip side, Tennessee’s defense and its young secondary need to prevent any chunk plays from Iowa. Like many Big Ten West teams, the Hawkeyes rely on their run game.
Even then, the offense hasn’t been very effective when it is run-heavy.
Jack Church, Staff Writer
1. Make up for Small and Wright on the ground
Dylan Sampson has produced when given the opportunity before. Against UTSA, Sampson ran for 139 yards and two touchdowns. When he was given 17 carries against Kentucky, he ran for 76 yards and a score.
With Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small both absent from the Citrus Bowl, Sampson will be expected to have substantial production against an Iowa defense that has only allowed four rushing touchdowns all season. While Cameron Seldon remains an option in the backfield, the running game will rely on Sampson’s play.
2. Don’t allow deep throws from Iowa
Iowa’s offense is by no means known for its explosive plays. However, with almost the entirety of Tennessee’s secondary either opting out or transferring, Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill may have some opportunities to throw deep passes.
Even during the regular season, Tennessee has struggled against some lesser-known quarterbacks. Kentucky’s Devin Leary threw for 372 yards and two touchdowns earlier this season, and even Austin Peay’s Mike DiLiello threw for 260 yards.
Tennessee’s front seven has proven it can stop the run. However, the secondary has not shown the same ability when faced with deep throws. New faces for the Vols will need to step up in pass coverage for Tennessee to win this game.
Tanner Johnson, Staff Writer
1. Help your freshman quarterback
After only briefly appearing at the end of a few blowouts, freshman Nico Iamaleava has been handed the keys to Tennessee’s offense. It is a move that many fans have been waiting for ever since the highly touted quarterback arrived on campus last December for Orange Bowl practices.
However, Iamaleava’s first start comes against a Hawkeyes defense that is fifth in the FBS in total defense and ninth in passing yards allowed with 172.2 yards per game. Look for the Vols to give Iamaleava some quick easy throws to settle him into the game.
2. Aggressive defensive game plan
Tennessee defensive coordinator Tim Banks has been known to implement conservative defensive schemes which include soft coverages that can allow opponents to slowly pick the Vols apart. Where Banks has found success is when he opts for a more aggressive approach that puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill has struggled mightily this season along with the rest of the Iowa offense and has more interceptions than touchdown passes. Hill has struggled when pressured and has lost five fumbles this year, which is tied for second most in the Power 5. The Vols should avoid conservative calls that would only give Iowa confidence and allow them to establish a rhythm.
Madeline McNeely, Staff Writer
1. Iamaleava must show confidence
Without starting quarterback Joe Milton, freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava will make his debut start for the Vols. With Iamaleava’s first start being in a bowl game against a defensively strong team, the pressure will be on.
Ultimately, Iamaleava will need to be prepared to manage the game and make smart decisions. Tennessee has struggled this season in offensive consistency.
Iamaleava will need to show poise and confidence in order to establish himself as a leader on the field. Mistakes are inevitable with the pressures of being a newly starting quarterback, so patience could potentially be a key to the game. Hopefully, Iamaleava will showcase a connection with his offense and use this opportunity to grow.
2. Offense will need to adjust with missing key starters
In addition to Milton, starting running backs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small have also reportedly opted out of the bowl game. This means that the team must be prepared to step up to fill the shoes of key missing players.
This will further bring opportunity to younger players who have not seen the field as much this season. Sophomore Dylan Sampson is ready to step up as a starting running back for the team. Tennessee will likely rely on the veteran starters to act as leaders to the new starters.
Although these change-ups will likely lead to some errors, it is crucial that the team finds a way to adapt to each other and Iowa at the same time. Overall, Tennessee must be prepared to have a positive mentality and drive to adjust when things feel different.
PREDICTIONS
Vegas
Spread: Tennessee -6.5
O/U: 35.5
Caleb Jarreau, Sports Editor
Iowa’s offense combined with Nico Iamaleava making his first start will likely make this game ugly on Monday. That defense hasn’t face very many good offenses, especially playing in the Big Ten.
The best teams Iowa has played thus far were able to score on the Hawkeyes’ defense. Penn State scored 31 and Michigan scored 26 to defeat Iowa. The Hawkeyes were shut out in both contests.
Tennessee 21, Iowa 13
Jack Church, Staff Writer
Iowa might be the worst team in the country to play in a first start. Not only is Iowa’s defense one of the best in the country, Iowa punter Tory Taylor can force drives to start deep in Tennessee’s territory routinely.
However, that is the challenge that meets Nico Iamaleava. He has to meet this defense without two of his best options out of the backfield in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small.
On the other side of the ball, Iowa’s offense has not been productive, but Tennessee’s secondary presents an opportunity for the Hawkeyes to score.
I think Iowa is able to have a relatively high offensive showing, but Dylan Sampson should be able to stabilize the offense into putting up a respectable total.
Tennessee 21, Iowa 17
Tanner Johnson, Staff Writer
This is a game full of unknowns as most bowl games are in this new transfer portal/opt out era. How will Iamaleava handle a top-tier defense in his first start? Will Tennessee be able to overcome the absence of several scholarship players?
All of those questions cannot be answered until Tennessee steps on the field on New Year’s Day. But we do know that Iowa is the worst offensive team in the Power 5 and has struggled to beat good teams this year.
I expect Tennessee to start slowly but then settle in and play with renewed energy as Iamaleava gives the offense some much needed life. Iowa will put up a fight and make Tennessee earn this victory, but I believe the Vols will meet the challenge and do just enough on offense to pull away from the Hawkeyes.
Tennessee 20, Iowa 10
Madeline McNeely, Staff Writer
With many crucial line-up changes, things will likely look ugly at times. Tennessee must not give in to the frustration that comes with mistakes because there will likely be miscommunication during the game. However, if the team plays with consistent confidence, then that will likely lead to a more positive outcome.
Due to this being Iamaleava’s first full game, I predict that the scoring will be lower. In addition, Iowa’s defense could cause problems for Tennessee’s offensive scoring.
If Tennessee uses this newer lineup as a fresh start to motivate them for next season, I think that they will come out with enough momentum and firepower to defeat Iowa.
Tennessee 24, Iowa 17
