Each week, the two sports editors at The Daily Beacon, Trevor McGee and Alex Sarkis, give their keys and predictions for Tennessee’s upcoming football matchup.
In any other month, the third Saturday is just a date on the calendar.
In October, things change. The No. 11 Vols are set to walk into some of their most hostile enemy territory for an all too familiar duel with No. 6 Alabama. Neither squad enters the matchup playing for its College Football Playoff life, but Tennessee is eyeing a chance to gain a massive resume-boosting win inside of a Bryant-Denny Stadium building where it hasn’t won since 2003.
Trevor McGee, Sports Editor
Play a full 60 minutes
Josh Heupel has struggled to put together a complete 60 minutes in big games. It has happened twice in Tuscaloosa during his Vols tenure, and it happened already once this season against Georgia at home.
Complacency doesn’t win football games. That is obvious.
During Heupel’s first year in 2021, the Vols entered the fourth quarter trailing 24-17. The game ended 52-24 with Alabama scoring on four of its five fourth-quarter drives. In 2023, Tennessee went into the locker room with a two-score lead at 20-7. It managed to lose the game 34-20, posting a goose egg in the second half.
That is considered not playing a complete game. To pull out a win that hasn’t happened since 2003 — which needed five overtime periods to do so — another incomplete performance would be unacceptable.
Come out even, at worst, in turnover margin
Sure, the easiest key to a win would be to suggest forcing Alabama to turn the ball over. That certainly is not the wrong key to point out.
But Alabama’s two turnovers this season suggest it would take a monumental effort to get in Ty Simpson’s head. So to play into the Crimson Tide’s strength, a clean game of football must be played on Tennessee’s side.
Joey Aguilar has thrown five interceptions this season, including four in SEC play. His last effort against Arkansas, however, was scotch-free. Tennessee needs that version of Aguilar more than anything this weekend.
Fumbles, particularly on muffed punts, have been an issue, too. But, again, it was a clean game for the Vols against Arkansas. Momentum must be built from the win over the Hogs.
Do not turn the ball over.
Score prediction: Alabama 45, Tennessee 37
Until Heupel wins a road game against a top-ranked opponent, I cannot pick him and the Vols in such a game. An overtime win at Mississippi State can be argued in many different fashions, but that does not push my thoughts over the hump.
I believe that Tennessee is closer to losing this game by three scores than it is to winning this game. I will give the Vols the benefit of the doubt, however, in the fact that the battles in Tuscaloosa have been close to an extent.
Alex Sarkis, Assistant Sports Editor
Somehow force turnovers
If there’s one thing Alabama does well, it’s take care of the football.
The Crimson Tide has only coughed up the ball a pair of times this season. Simpson’s lone interception against Vanderbilt is the Martin, Tennessee, native’s only blemish in the turnover column. Tennessee’s defense has relied on forcing timely turnovers to aid them in wins so far. The Vols tallied a pair of defensive scores in their only other road SEC game against Mississippi State and are capitalizing on 1.8 giveaways per game.
It feels like Tennessee needs a similar performance this week. The Crimson Tide doesn’t have the nation’s most explosive offense, but instead enjoys methodical drives that aim to tire a defense. Tim Banks’ troops have struggled in a lot of areas this year, but they need to find a way to cut Alabama’s long marches short.
While it’s going to be difficult to rely on Simpson to turn the ball over, the Vols can boast one of the best pass rushes in the country. If they can get to the signal-caller and knock the ball free, Tennessee’s best lane to a victory can begin to take form.
Win on third down
The weighty downs have not been the Tennessee defense’s friend.
Last week against Arkansas, all of the Razorbacks’ third-down conversions came in long yardage situations. The Vols need to find a way to get off the field this time around. Tennessee is allowing 11.5 first downs by pass per game, a mark that Simpson and his strong trio of wide receivers are chomping at the bit to take advantage of. Banks will likely have his corners in man coverage like they have been for most of the year in an effort to send a blitz. If the pass rush can’t get home at a decent rate, Simpson can pick the secondary apart.
The Vols’ best bet is to set the Crimson Tide behind the chains and put Simpson under duress when he has to drop back and pass. It’s going to be a tall task.
Score prediction: Alabama 49, Tennessee 35
Tennessee needs to win this game on the defensive side of the ball, something I believe is too much of a burden. It is not last year’s unit, and without Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson in the defensive backfield, victory won’t be in the cards. I don’t expect the Vols’ top-ranked scoring offense to have many hiccups, even though the Crimson Tide’s resistance will be among the best they see all season.
The road demons in one of Tennessee’s scariest houses of horror won’t be exercised.
