Each week, the two sports editors and football beat writers at The Daily Beacon, Josh Lane and Andrew Peters, give their keys and predictions to Tennessee’s upcoming football matchup.
This week, the No. 11 Vols look to keep their hot start going as they take on their rival, No. 20 Florida.
Keys
Josh Lane
1. Make Do Without Cedric Tillman
The latest news from ESPN Saturday morning was that Tennessee’s star wide receiver will be out against Florida. Tillman suffered an ankle injury in the second quarter against Akron last week. With the Vols’ bye next week, they did not feel the need to push Tillman to play, opting to give him two weeks off before the Vols head to LSU on Oct. 8.
So for nearly a second full game, quarterback Hendon Hooker will be without his most proven target, though Tillman’s absence hasn’t had a lasting effect on his production. Hooker completed passes to nine receivers in the Vols’ season-opener and against Akron, 12 receivers caught a pass.
Don’t expect numbers that large against much stiffer competition than Ball State or Akron, but Hooker needs to spread the ball around and relay on breakout junior Jalin Hyatt and Tillman’s backup Ramel Keyton.
2. Stop Florida’s Running Back Trio
Florida’s offense has not been the same since its Week 1 victory – but it is a dangerous unit on the ground. All of Anthony Richardson’s production has come in the run game, and the Gators have a trio of dynamic running backs that can hurt the Vols as well.
Florida has used Montrell Johnson Jr., Trevor Etienne and Nay’Quan Wright nearly identically through three games, as the three backs have 25, 24 and 24 carries, respectively, on the season. Johnson has been the most effective in terms of yardage with 70 more rushing yards than any other Florida rusher, but all three have found the end zone – Johnson and Etienne twice.
Andrew Peters
1. Contain Richardson on the Ground
Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson has not thrown a touchdown yet this season. He has thrown just 423 yards through three games and already has four interceptions on the season. This is great news for a team whose weakest link is its secondary, which is the case for Tennessee.
But just because Richardson is not a huge passing threat, he can torch the Vols on the run. In his best game thus far against Utah in Week 1, Richardson had 134 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
The Vols haven’t seen a mobile quarterback like Richardson yet this season. Akron quarterback D.J. Burns was the closest thing to dual-threat that Tennessee has faced, but he is not at the same level as Richardson. Stopping – or at least slowing down – Richardson will be key on defense.
2. Torch Florida’s Defense
Florida’s defensive line has struggled so far this season. The Gators have just three sacks and have failed to put pressure on the three quarterbacks they have faced this season.
This is perfect for Tennessee. The weak defensive line will allow running backs Jabari Small, Jaylen Wright and Dylan Sampson to pick up some yards and the ground and give Hendon Hooker plenty of time in the pocket to take shots deep to Cedric Tillman, Jalin Hyatt, Bru McCoy and other targets. If Tennessee can get the ball moving well and play at the fast pace it is comfortable with, the Vols will have a successful day on offense.
Predictions
Vegas
Spread: Tennessee -10.5
O/U: 62.5
Josh Lane
Is this the year? Is Tennessee going to beat Florida for the first time since 2016 and start a power shift in the all-time series which the Gators have dominated for most of this century? I don’t know about all that, but I do think Tennessee gets over the hump Saturday afternoon.
Florida’s offense – particularly Anthony Richardson – has not shown me enough to make me think they can beat Tennessee in a shootout – even against a weaker Vols defense. Tennessee should have no problem scoring and I don’t think Florida has what it takes to keep up.
Tennessee 38, Florida 17
Andrew Peters
Everything seems to be pointing in Tennessee’s direction heading into this game. Vegas has the Vols as a 10.5 point favorite, and they have covered the spread in every game so far. College Gameday is coming to campus (sorry Kansas) and Neyland Stadium will be the loudest football stadium in the country Saturday afternoon.
But when it comes to Florida, nothing is ever set in stone. The Gators have controlled this rivalry for all of this century, give or take a couple of Tennessee wins, and they are looking to pour water on a flaming hot Tennessee team on Saturday.
The Vols’ flame will not be dimmed, however, and Tennessee will win this game. The Vols are the more talented team and, for the first time in a long time, seem like they are using their talent well. The win will be a checkmark on Heupel’s list of how to make Vols fans happy and another step in the right direction for a program that hasn’t seen success in a long time.
Tennessee 42, Florida 28
