The United States federal government shut down on Oct. 1, 2025.
With a contentious partisan divide and potential threats to federal worker retention, this shutdown is different from others in the past.
Since Friday, Oct. 10, 2025, reductions in force have begun, according to White House Office of Management Director Russ Vought, marking a significant escalation in how the Trump administration is handling the lapse in funding.
Professors Joshua Dunn and John Stavick from the Baker School of Public Policy and Affairs say that this action has the potential to shape how future shutdowns are managed and potentially redefine how far the president’s constitutional powers extend.
Dunn said the administration is expected to rely on an argument grounded in Article II of the Constitution, claiming that the president’s executive powers override statutory protections for federal employees.
“The president can lay off employees due to reorganization or a lack of work or funds, but that has not been applied to a temporary loss of funds due to a shutdown before,” Dunn said. “The Trump administration will certainly argue that statutory restrictions on the president’s ability to fire federal employees are superseded by his Article II powers.”
Both presidential power and the rights of unionized employees are called into question, as unionized employees are protected by collective bargaining agreements.
“Unionized employees cannot be laid off as simply as ‘at will’ employees, because the collective bargaining agreement typically specifies what rules the federal government must follow to terminate a unionized employee. Earlier this year, DOGE was pursuing terminations of probationary employees that are more easily terminated at will,” Stavick said.
In fact, the American Federation of Government Employees has already filed a lawsuit against these potential force reductions.
While there is no precedent allowing the president this power thus far, there is potential for this case to change that, as these lawsuits and potential violations of the collective bargaining agreement make it to the courts.
“I think the current understanding of the law would work against the Trump administration, but the Supreme Court has signaled a willingness to reconsider executive power, particularly under Article II, and I can’t see how the issue wouldn’t make it to the Supreme Court.
“If the Court says presidents can engage in these firings during shutdowns, then we could easily imagine Republican presidents welcoming shutdowns as an opportunity to reduce the size and scope of the administrative state and that could give them leverage in negotiations with Democrats in Congress,” Dunn said.
If these layoffs are implemented and successful in the courts, shutdowns could become a new form of political hardball, shifting from a temporary funding tactic to a tool for reshaping the federal workforce and passing legislation.
Students planning to enter the federal workforce will likely continue to do so, despite this potential threat to the federal workers’ unions.
“I think that students who are interested in pursuing public service will continue to do so despite the shutdown. Federal shutdowns are infrequent and usually short-lived. I think there remains a great deal of opportunity for careers in public service,” Stavick said.
